What is a Problem Hypothesis?
Date : January 17, 2021 By
We all remember developing a hypothesis in high school science class. Put simply, a hypothesis is an assumption that can be clearly proven wrong. In the context of launching a business, we can use a problem hypothesis as a way of testing whether or not your intended audience will use your product or service.
A problem hypothesis is made up of three components:
- Who you think the customer is
- What their problems are
- What benefits they get from solving these problems
Maybe you already have an idea for a business, product or service. That’s great. However, entrepreneurs often overlook an important part of problem identification — that a problem is only worth solving if it’s meaningful enough for your customer. In other words, if your user isn’t significantly impacted by this problem, they won’t care enough to want to solve it. And certainly won’t pay for you to solve it for them.
So that means we need to be disciplined in this phase — focusing on the customer and their problems, and less about our idea of a solution. Don’t worry, you’ll get to the part where you propose your amazing product or business service, but for now, try not to get distracted by your ideas and just focus on what your customer really wants.
A good way to develop a problem hypothesis is to put it into a user story format. A user story is a very short (typically one-sentence) explanation of:
- who a particular user is (i.e. firefighters)
- what activity or behavior they might do (i.e. wear fire-proof clothing)
- what they get out of doing that action (i.e. don’t get burned).
User stories follow this format:
“As [a user persona], I want [to perform this action] so that [I can accomplish this goal].”
Let’s look at a few user stories for businesses we know well.
As a user, I want to be able to share short ideas with my friends, so that I can stay connected without spending a ton of time writing.
As a mom, I want to curate my favorite things, so other moms can recognize and appreciate me.
Dribbble
As a graphic designer, I want to showcase my work, so that I can see what resonates with people.
As a business professional, I want to organize my work experience online, so I always have an updated resume to share.
Don’t mistake a user story for a use case. They aren’t the same thing. A user story tells us who a user is, an action they might do and what they want to get out of that activity. Whereas a use case is a detailed description of the action a user might do.
The fun part about this stage in the customer development process is that you don’t have to get it right yet. Almost certainly you won’t. The important part is that you get your problem hypothesis down on paper.
Creating a problem hypothesis can be done whether you have an idea already or not. Maybe you don’t know what problem you want to solve or how you’re going to solve it, but you have a general sense of the type of user or market you want to address. Then writing user stories will help you discover a problem as you talk with customers. In this case you’re going to just make a guess at writing your problem hypothesis. And that’s totally fine. And you can even make a few of them.
For those who already have an idea of the problem you want to solve and the product or service you want to build to solve it, then your user story will be more specific.
Think of it this way as you write your user story:
- The “user action” is them using your product or service
- The “user goal” is the problem being solved for them
So in the case of Twitter, the action is sending short messages (i.e. Tweets) and goal is communicate with less words (i.e. save time).
If you think you know who your customer is, what activity they might do and what they would get out of doing it, then go ahead and download the exercise files from this chapter and try it out now. I’ll see you in the next chapter when you’re done. If you’re not quite sure, then continue along while we break down the three parts to the problem hypothesis in more detail.